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Looking for some quality political analysis on USA politics? Check out our list of the best political analysts of USA politics published books.
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Best Political Analysts
Nate Silver
Silver is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight and a special contributing writer for The New York Times Magazine. In March 2013, he sold FiveThirtyEight to ESPN.
Sam Wang
Sam Wang is a Princeton neuroscientist who has become one of the most accurate political analysts in the country. He correctly predicted the outcomes of the last three presidential elections, and his statistical model currently shows Hillary Clinton with a 97% chance of winning in 2016. Wang is also the author of several books on politics, including The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t, which was named one of the best books of 2012 by The New York Times.
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight, sometimes stylized as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which is owned by ESPN, was founded in 2008 by Nate Silver. In 2010, the website’s politics section led by Silver became widely recognized for its accurate election forecasts, especially in the 2012 United States presidential election where it forecast the electoral vote results for all 50 states correctly. FiveThirtyEight’s sports section also gained recognition in 2012 for accurately predicting the outcomes of all major sporting events that year.
Best Political Analysis Books
If you are interested in learning more about USA politics, then you should consider reading one of the best political analysis books. These books will give you an in-depth look at the inner workings of the US political system. You will learn about the different players involved, the various political parties, and the various issues that are important to the US political landscape.
The Signal and the Noise
Published in 2012, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t is a book by American statistician and writer Nate Silver. The book is Silver’s attempt to explain why so many predictions fail, while some (particularly his own) succeed.
The book is organized into five sections: “Predictions”, “Forecasting”, “Models”, ” Policy”, and “Calibrated Probabilism”. In the first section, Silver examines why so many predictions fail, using examples from fields such as politics, economics, weather forecasting, climate change, epidemiology, ecology, finance, poker, baseball, and election forecasting. He attributes most failed predictions to one or more of four main causes: complexity (a problem has too many variables to make an accurate prediction), clutter (there is too much data to sift through), confirmation bias (people give more weight to evidence that supports their existing beliefs), and overconfidence (people underestimate the amount of uncertainty in their predictions).
In the second section, Silver discusses the difference between forecasts (attempts to predict future events) and predictions (attempts to guess the outcome of a random process). He argues that forecasts are usually more successful than predictions because they take into account all of the relevant information about a problem, while predictions focus on a single variable.
The third section looks at how models can be used to make accurate predictions. Silver describes two types of models: causal models (which try to identify the cause-and-effect relationships between variables) and probabilistic models (which quantify the likelihood of an event occurring). He argues that causal models are usually more successful than probabilistic models because they can take into account more variables.
In the fourth section, Silver discusses how policy decisions are often based on forecasts. He argues that forecasts are more likely to be successful when they are made by independent experts who are not beholden to any particular interest group.
The fifth and final section explores the concept of “calibrated probabilism”, which Silver defines as “the art of estimating Unknown Unknowns”. He argues that this is an essential skill for anyone who wants to make accurate predictions.
The Rational Vote
The Rational Vote: How Political Choices Reflect Economic Self-Interest, by Bryan Caplan. This book is an in-depth analysis of the way that people vote, and how that affects the outcomes of elections. Caplan argues that people often vote based on their own economic self-interest, rather than what is best for the country as a whole.
The Myth of the Rational Voter
The Myth of the Rational Voter: Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies is a book by Bryan Caplan, professor of economics at George Mason University. The book was first published in 2007.
In the book, Caplan argues that irrational voter behavior is the root cause of many bad economic policies. He attributes this to a combination of three factors: voters’ biases, lack of information, and lack of incentive to learn.
Caplan’s proposal to offset these problems is “epistemic democracy,” a form of democracy in which experts make decisions instead of the general public. He argues that this would lead to better decisions, since experts are more likely to be rational and informed than the average voter.
The book was generally well-received by reviewers. Many praised Caplan’s analysis, although some disagreed with his conclusions.
Best Political Analysis Websites
In order to be the best, one has to understand both sides. The best political analysts are those that can do more than simply read the news; they have to have a firm understanding of history, human behavior, and be able to see current events in the context of the larger picture.
FiveThirtyEight
FiveThirtyEight is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of total electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, by Nate Silver.
In the 2016 presidential election, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in 50 out of 50 states. They also correctly predicted the outcome of the Electoral College vote.
RealClearPolitics
RealClearPolitics is a news and opinion website that was launched in 2000 by two former advertising executives from Chicago, John McIntyre and Tom Bevan. The website is devoted to providing clear, non-partisan analysis of American politics.
RealClearPolitics has become one of the most popular political news websites in the United States, with an average of over four million unique visitors per month. The website’s content is divided into six main sections: national politics, elections, opinion, policy, state and local politics, and media.
The website’s national politics section features articles from a variety of political commentators on the major issues affecting the United States. The section is further divided into sub-sections on the President, Congress, Supreme Court, and elections.
The opinion section features editorials and columns from a variety of political commentators on a wide range of topics. The policy section features analysis on a variety of policy issues affecting the United States, such as healthcare, immigration, taxes, and education.
The state and local politics section features articles from a variety of political commentators on the major issues affecting states and localities across the United States. The media section features analysis on the role of themedia in American politics.
The Cook Political Report
The Cook Political Report is a highly respected website that provides analysis of elections and politics in the United States. The website is edited by Charlie Cook, who has more than 40 years of experience in political analysis and election forecasting.
